Polidex forecasts that Zohran Mamdani will win the 2025 NYC Mayoral Race.
Mamdani has an 86% likelihood of winning.
Four-way race: Zohran Mamdani (D), Andrew Cuomo (I), Curtis Sliwa (R).
* Undecided/Other/Walden split evenly among the four candidates in the running averages.
Zohran Mamdani
Democratic
86.0%
Andrew Cuomo
Independent
14.0%
Eric Adams (dropped out)
Independent
0.0%
Curtis Sliwa
Republican
0.0%
Borough Forecast
Eric Adams dropped out on Oct 1, 2025. His polling trend is frozen from that date.
Recent Polls (Effective Shares)
| Dates | Pollster | Mamdani | Cuomo | Adams | Sliwa | Sample | Pop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10–16 | Manhattan Institute | 28.5% | 42.5% | 13.5% | 15.5% | 1,000 | LV |
| Jun 25 | Honan Strategy Group (D) | 39.5% | 39.5% | 13.5% | 7.5% | 817 | LV |
| Jun 28–Jul 1 | American Pulse Research & Polling | 36.3% | 30.3% | 15.3% | 17.3% | 568 | LV |
| Jun 30–Jul 2 | Gotham Polling & Analytics | 42.5% | 28.5% | 17.5% | 11.5% | 1,021 | LV |
| Jul 1–6 | Data for Progress (D) | 41.5% | 25.5% | 16.5% | 15.5% | 756 | LV |
| Jul 2–6 | Slingshot Strategies (D) | 38.8% | 28.8% | 14.8% | 17.8% | 1,036 | RV |
| Jul 7–8 | HarrisX | 29.8% | 26.8% | 16.8% | 25.8% | 585 | RV |
| Jul 18–20 | Wick | 42.3% | 24.3% | 12.3% | 21.3% | 500 | LV |
| Aug 4–7 | Siena University | 47.0% | 28.0% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 317 | RV |
| Aug 11 | AARP/Gotham | 44.2% | 25.8% | 11.2% | 18.9% | 317 | RV |
| Sep 2–6 | NY Times/Siena | 46.0% | 24.0% | 15.0% | 9.0% | 1,284 | LV |
| Sep 4–8 | Quinnipiac | 45.0% | 23.0% | 15.0% | 12.0% | 967 | LV |
| Sep 7–8 | The Hill/Emerson | 43.0% | 28.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 600 | RV |
| Sep 7–13 | CBS News | 43.0% | 28.0% | 15.0% | 6.0% | 1,903 | LV |
| Sep 16–18 | Suffolk* | 45.0% | 25.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 500 | LV |
| Sep 18–22 | FOX News | 47.0% | 29.0% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 814 | LV |
Effective share = reported share + (Undecided + Other + Walden)/4.