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Polidex forecasts that Zohran Mamdani will win the 2025 NYC Mayoral Race.

Mamdani has an 86% likelihood of winning.

Three-way race: Zohran Mamdani (D), Andrew Cuomo (I), Curtis Sliwa (R).

* Undecided/Other/Walden split evenly among the three candidates in the running averages.

Zohran Mamdani
Zohran Mamdani
Democratic
86.0%
Andrew Cuomo
Andrew Cuomo
Independent
14.0%
Eric Adams (dropped out)
Eric Adams (dropped out)
Independent
0.0%
Curtis Sliwa
Curtis Sliwa
Republican
0.0%

Borough Forecast

Eric Adams dropped out on Oct 1, 2025. His polling trend is frozen from that date.

Polling Trend

View NYC Mayoral Primaries →

Recent Polls (Effective Shares)

DatesPollsterMamdaniCuomoAdamsSliwaSamplePop
Jun 10–16Manhattan Institute28.5%42.5%13.5%15.5%1,000LV
Jun 25Honan Strategy Group (D)39.5%39.5%13.5%7.5%817LV
Jun 28–Jul 1American Pulse Research & Polling36.3%30.3%15.3%17.3%568LV
Jun 30–Jul 2Gotham Polling & Analytics42.5%28.5%17.5%11.5%1,021LV
Jul 1–6Data for Progress (D)41.5%25.5%16.5%15.5%756LV
Jul 2–6Slingshot Strategies (D)38.8%28.8%14.8%17.8%1,036RV
Jul 7–8HarrisX29.8%26.8%16.8%25.8%585RV
Jul 18–20Wick42.3%24.3%12.3%21.3%500LV
Aug 4–7Siena University47.0%28.0%10.0%15.0%317RV
Aug 11AARP/Gotham44.2%25.8%11.2%18.9%317RV
Sep 2–6NY Times/Siena46.0%24.0%15.0%9.0%1,284LV
Sep 4–8Quinnipiac45.0%23.0%15.0%12.0%967LV
Sep 7–8The Hill/Emerson43.0%28.0%10.0%8.0%600RV
Sep 7–13CBS News43.0%28.0%15.0%6.0%1,903LV
Sep 16–18Suffolk*45.0%25.0%9.0%8.0%500LV
Sep 18–22FOX News47.0%29.0%11.0%7.0%814LV
Oct 3–7Quinnipiac46.0%33.0%0.0%15.0%1,015LV
Oct 10–14FOX News52.0%28.0%0.0%14.0%793LV
Oct 14–15AARP**43.0%29.0%0.0%19.0%1,040LV
Oct 22–23Victory Insights47.0%29.0%0.0%16.0%500LV
Oct 23–26Suffolk*44.0%34.0%0.0%11.0%500LV
Oct 23–27Quinnipiac43.0%33.0%0.0%14.0%911LV
Oct 24–28Marist48.0%32.0%0.0%16.0%792LV
Oct 25–28The Hill/Emerson50.0%25.0%0.0%21.0%640LV
Oct 24–28FOX News47.0%31.0%0.0%15.0%971LV
Effective share = reported share + (Undecided + Other + Walden)/4.