Polidex 2026 House Predictions
Explore Polidex’s latest projections for the U.S. House and the current balance of power.
*All candidates' top donors were RNC and DNC related organizations that have been excluded.
Safe D 154
Likely D 43
Safe R 177
Generic Ballot
Smoothing: LOESS (28 days)
Weights: √(sample size) × sample-type factor (LV=1.15, RV=1.00, A=0.85).
Most Competitive House Districts
DemocratRepublican center = 50%
District
Republican
Democrat
Predicted Vote % (50–60 mirrored)
in 100
AZ-06
Juan Ciscomani
Democrat
50
56 in 100
CA-13
Republican
Adam Gray
50
48 in 100
CA-45
Republican
Derek Tran
50
45 in 100
CO-08
Gabe Evans
Democrat
50
51 in 100
IA-01
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
Democrat
50
54 in 100
MI-07
Tom Barrett
Democrat
50
46 in 100
OH-09
Republican
Marcy Kaptur
50
51 in 100
OH-13
Republican
Emilia Sykes
50
47 in 100
PA-07
Ryan Mackenzie
Democrat
50
58 in 100
ME-02
Republican
Jared Golden
50
48 in 100
Democrats favored to win the House
100 simulated outcomes scattered between guide rails; ≤12 dots per row.
Republicans win 34 in 100
Democrats win 66 in 100
Majority (217)
225
240
255
225
240
255
Current House
226
209
House Ideology Compass (2024)
West = Socially Liberal · East = Socially Conservative · Top = Fiscally Progressive · Bottom = Fiscally Conservative
Hover a dot for details. (No legend/importer — matches Senate.)