Polidex Forecasts that Abigail Spanberger
is the Favorite to Win the Virginia Governor’s Race.
Spanberger has an 88% Chance of Victory. Predicted Margin: D+12.5%
* Forecast reflects Virginia’s general election environment as of October 31, 2025.
Abigail Spanberger
Democrat
56.25%
Chance of Victory
Spanberger 88%
Winsome Earle-Sears
Republican
43.75%
Polling Average Trend
Recent polling: Trafalgar/InsiderAdvantage (10/28, 800 LV, ±3.5) Spanberger 46% / Earle-Sears 42%; Roanoke College (10/22–10/27, 1041 LV, ±4.1) Spanberger 51% / Earle-Sears 41%; CNU (10/21–10/23, 803 LV, ±4.1) Spanberger 50% / Earle-Sears 43%; Suffolk (10/19–10/21, 500 LV, ±4.4) Spanberger 52% / Earle-Sears 43%.
Odds of Victory Over Time
Spanberger began the year slightly favored (~59%), held in the low to mid 70s through summer, and then accelerated into the high 80s after September as her lead solidified across Northern Virginia and the Richmond suburbs.