Polidex Forecasts that Mikie Sherrill
is the Favorite to Win the New Jersey Governor’s Race.
Sherrill has a 78% Chance of Victory. Predicted Margin: D+11.9%
* New Jersey uses a closed primary system. Only registered party members may vote in their party’s primary election.
Mikie Sherrill
Democrat
55.95%
Chance of Victory
Sherrill 78%
Jack Ciattarelli
Republican
44.05%
County Forecast
Polling Average Trend
Odds of Victory Over Time
Forecast model based on polling average, fundraising, incumbency advantage of party, county-level fundamentals, and turnout history.